Suuma's Takeaways from Week 2
By: Suuma, NFL Originator
Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/suuma810
1. The losing mentality is alive and well
There's still an epidemic of defensive-minded head coaches making boneheaded in-game decisions that cost their teams a tremendous amount of upside.
Late in Packers-Jets, the score was tied at 17. Green Bay completed a 5-yard pass on 3rd & 10 to set up 4th & 5 from the New York 45 with about a minute left on the clock. There isn't a single Madden tournament player who wouldn't have burned a timeout in Aaron Glenn's shoes. Gang Green would have gotten the ball back with roughly 50 seconds and a timeout still in the pocket.
Glenn didn't take it. Afterwards he said he never even considered it, because he was more worried about the Pack pinning his offense deep. Matt LaFleur said he was “really confused” by the decision. Yes, Matt, we all were. Glenn simply does not trust his offense to orchestrate a potential game-winning field goal drive — and that's while his defense had Green Bay's offense firmly in check.
Houston was just as guilty. Down 10-3 to the Bengals, the Texans faced 4th & 1 at the Cincinnati 40, and it was closer to 4th & inches than a full yard. Instead of going for it, DeMeco Ryans sent out the kicker for a 58-yarder, which came up short. This is a team that traded for David Montgomery precisely to be better in those spots, to have a back who can churn out the one extra yard. If you don't trust your guys to gain less than a yard, what are we even doing here? It's a losing mentality, as simple as that.
2. The Packers are in deep trouble
It's going to be a long season in Wisconsin. Yes, Green Bay squeaked by the Jets, but you can argue they were outplayed over 60 minutes. The Pack gained 20 more yards from penalties than they did from their passing attack, and Skyy Moore's work in the return game did a lot of the heavy lifting.
They ran the ball on two-thirds of series-opening first downs and couldn't get anything going to save their lives. On top of that, they lost starting tackle Zach Tom (long-term), guard Aaron Banks and slot receiver Jayden Reed to injury.
That offensive line is a dumpster fire. If this team can't run the ball efficiently — and I don't think they will this season — opposing defenses will have a much easier time scheming against them.
3. Watch out for the Bengals
Cincinnati is 2-0. Yes, they recovered four fumbles against the Bucs in Week 1, and yes, their offense has posted below-average efficiency numbers through two games. That's not a major issue. We know how good this unit is and can be.
What's fascinating is the defense, specifically the overhauled defensive line with big boy Dexter Lawrence leading the way. Through two weeks, the Bengals are allowing a 28.1% success rate (4th) and a 34.4% stuff rate (1st) against the run, along with ranking top five in EPA against both the run and the pass.
Granted, those fumble recoveries against Tampa Bay play a huge role in the numbers. But the way that front is playing is a level we haven't seen in Cincy in a long time. The secondary still has holes and will get tested throughout the year. The first two outings from that defense, though, were highly encouraging.
4. Brian Flores is a mad scientist
Yes, it was a weather game. But the Vikings defense ranks 1st in success rate after facing offenses orchestrated by Matt LaFleur and Ben Johnson. Dallas Turner, who was almost written off as a bust last year, leads the league in pressures and made the key play at the end of the game. The Bears offense — the same group that hung 59 points the week prior — had no idea what it was doing for most of the 60 minutes.
Minnesota is blitzing at a 75% rate through two games. That's insane. Flores is a mad scientist experimenting with how far he can push his chips. Oh, and they've generated pressure on 50% of dropbacks so far. Just insanity
5. The Cooked List
Chargers. The public discourse around Justin Herbert might shift a little this season, but he has been the smallest problem here. The Bolts have faced the Cardinals and Raiders defenses — defense is generally hard to predict, but neither unit was in the consensus top 16 in projections prior to the season. Two weeks in, this offense ranks 27th in success rate: 20th passing, 27th rushing.
Mike McDaniel and Herbert, plus a rushing attack improved through scheme, sounded like a match made in heaven and a potential top-five offense. Instead, they cannot run the ball, right tackle Joe Alt was getting crushed on Sunday, and the receivers are making error after error. And now the tough part of the schedule starts: BUF, SEA, DEN, KC, LAR, HOU, BAL. Five of those seven on the road. The season might be over very soon. Cooked.
Commanders. Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow again, the trenches are getting decimated on both sides and the defense is bad. Games against SEA, IND, NYG, SF, PHI and LAR are on deck. A top-three pick and Dan Quinn as the first head coach fired are both certainly on the table. Cooked.
Falcons. Atlanta has put out one of the worst quarterback performances through two weeks. It's crazy to think that Michael Penix coming back from his ACL could be what sparks this offense — the bar is THAT low, and Penix hasn't been good to begin with. They're also losing bodies on defense and cannot stop a nosebleed. With one more data point in, we know we shouldn't have hung their showing at Pittsburgh that high. Another team that could end up battling for a top-three pick. Cooked.
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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 3
CIN/PIT under 43.5 -104
SEA/WAS under 41.5 -110
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Injuries We are Watching for Week 3
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
Arizona - DT Andrew Billings (Injured Inactive), LB Mack Wilson (Left Game), CB Will Johnson (Left Game), CB Garrett Williams (Injured Inactive), CB Max Melton (Left Game)
Atlanta - QB Tua Tagovailoa (Injured Inactive), QB Michael Penix Jr. (Injured Inactive), EDGE Samson Ebukam (Left Game), DT Brandon Dorlus (Left Game), CB A.J. Terrell (Left Game), CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - WR Zay Flowers (Injured Inactive), OT Ronnie Stanley (Left Game), DT Nnamdi Madubuike (Injured Inactive), LB Teddye Buchanan (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - WR DJ Moore (Left Game), DT Ed Oliver (Injured Inactive), DT T.J. Sanders (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - RB Jonathon Brooks (Left Game), EDGE Pat Jones II (Injured Inactive), EDGE Trevis Gipson (Left Game), DT Bobby Brown (Injured Inactive), S Nick Scott (Left Game)
Chicago - QB Caleb Williams (Left Game), CB Tyrique Stevenson (Left Game)
Cincinnati - DT B.J. Hill (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - OG Teven Jenkins (Injured Inactive), CB Tyson Campbell (Left Game)
Dallas - LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Cobie Durant (Left Game), S Malik Hooker (Injured Inactive), S P.J. Locke (Left Game)
Denver - RB JK Dobbins (Left Game), RB RJ Harvey (Injured Inactive), WR Marvin Mims Jr. (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - OG Christian Mahogany (Injured Inactive), OT Blake Miller (Injured Inactive), S Avonte Maddox (Left Game)
Green Bay - WR Jayden Reed (Left Game), OT Zach Bako-Bewele (Left Game), OG Aaron Banks (Left Game), OG Donovan Jennings (Left Game), DT Javon Hargrave (Injured Inactive), DT Warren Brinson (Injured Inactive), DT Anthony Campbell (Left Game), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive)
Houston - WR Nico Collins (Injured Inactive), OG Ed Ingram (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (Injured Inactive), LB Jake Hummel (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - WR Alec Pierce (Left Game), EDGE Micheal Clemons (Left Game), CB Charvarius Ward (Left Game)
Jacksonville - Nothing of note
Kansas City - OT Josh Simmons (Injured Inactive), S Chamarri Conner (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - TE Brock Bowers (Injured Inactive), CB Darien Porter (Injured Inactive), S Treydan Stukes (Left Game)
L.A Chargers - OG Kayode Awosika (Left Game), OG/OT Trey Pipkins III (Injured Inactive), TE Charlie Kolar (Left Game), TE David Njoku (Left Game), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Left Game), CB Elijah Molden (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Miami - WR Caleb Douglas (Left Game), EDGE Chop Robinson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Robert Beal Jr. (Left Game)
Minnesota - QB Kyler Murray (Injured Inactive), WR Jauan Jennings (Personal Inactive), DT Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (Left Game)
New England - TE Eli Raridon (Left Game), OG Mike Onwenu (Left Game/Season likely Over), EDGE Dre'Mont Jones (Left Game), CB Carlton Davis III (Injured Inactive), S Craig Woodson (Left Game)
New Orleans - OT Kelvin Banks (Left Game), DT Christen Miller (Injured Inactive), CB Martin Emerson Jr. (Left Game)
New York Giants - TBD (Playing Tonight)
New York Jets - TE Mason Taylor (Left Game), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), DT David Onyemata (Left Game), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Banged Up/Returned), TE Dallas Goedart (Left Game), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - RB Rico Dowdle (Left Game), WR Michael Pittman Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Joey Porter Jr. (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - WR Mike Evans (Left Game), WR Demarcus Robinson (Left Game), DT James Thompson Jr. (Left Game), CB Jack Jones (Left Game)
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold (Injured Inactive), RB Jadarian Price (Left Game), OG Anthony Bradford (Injured Inactive), S Ty Okada (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - CB Jacob Parrish (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - OG Fernando Carmona (Left Game), CB Cor'Dale Flott (Injured Inactive)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Left Game), TE Chig Okonkwo (Injured Inactive), OT Brandon Coleman (Left Game), OG Samuel Cosmi (Left Game), DT Javon Kinlaw (Left Game), LB Frankie Luvu (Injured Inactive)
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Player Prop from Hitman
Jaxson Dart under 30.5 pass attempts
I'm expecting a similar game plan for the Giants as last week's win against Dallas: ground and pound
Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/Hitman428
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CFB Risers & Fallers
By: Brad Powers, Co-Host of Hit The Books
Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/BradPowers7
Biggest Upgrades from Last Week:
Kentucky +3.0 points
The Wildcats upset No. 9 Texas A&M as 17-point underdogs. It was legitimate as A&M scored two of their touchdowns late and Kentucky averaged 14.0 yards per pass attempt while Texas A&M averaged only 4.8. What was expected to be a rebuilding season for first-year coach Will Stein, all of sudden has life.
Sam Houston State +2.5 points
Pay attention to the market. Sam Houston has taken money in each of their first 3 games and now sit at 3-0 ATS with an average cover of 19 points per game. Last week they went from 17.5-point favorites to 21-point favorites on gameday and went out and crushed Nicholls State 59-0. It's early, but Sam Houston is again taking money in the market this week vs Texas Tech.
West Virginia +2.0 points
The Mountaineers upset No. 25 Virginia as 10.5-point underdogs. They had a 437-354 yard edge and racked up a 6.4-5.1 yards per play edge. Rich Rodriguez' teams are always dangerous when he has a mobile QB running his system. He has that this year with Michael Hawkins who ran for 123 yards and 3 TD's while also throwing for 190 yards and 2 more TD's.
Biggest Downgrades from Last Week:
Texas A&M -3.0 points
The Aggies lost outright as 17-point favorites to Kentucky. QB Marcel Reed threw two interceptions and averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt (the average right now is 7.9). Now the Aggies find themselves more than TD underdogs at LSU this week and it's looking more like a typical 7-5/8-4 season for the Aggies program.
Bowling Green -2.5 points
The Falcons are a pathetic 0-3 ATS failing to cover their games by 18 points per game. Last week they were destroyed by Iowa State 55-7 as 22.5-point underdogs. The Faclons' offense ranks No. 138 (dead last) averaging 240 yards and 9 points per game. They are getting out-gained by 265 yards per game (also dead last).
Oklahoma -2.0 points
Fresh off an upset loss at Michigan, the Sooners looked even worse vs New Mexico Saturday night. Oklahoma only won 14-6 as 21.5-point favorites and stopped New Mexico on downs in the red zone late. It doesn't get any easier for the Sooners as they travel to Georgia this week (I bet Georgia -13.5).
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