Kirk's Hammer: Holding Two Truths — On Basketball Narratives and Betting Confidence

I think something we're either losing in society, or have never had—and I'm just now becoming old enough to notice—is the ability to hold two or more somewhat contradictory thoughts and admit both are true. You can think a person has some flaws but still like them. You can support a political movement while admitting they do some bad things. You can like Angel Reese but still acknowledge Caitlin Clark is a far superior player.

Maybe I’m getting baited by the vocal minority on my Twitter For You page. Maybe it’s even my fault—I see the tweets, and I probably click on them or scroll longer out of anger, and then I see more of them. But at the same time, these conversations are being talked about on major networks, including ESPN. They’re not just happening in niche corners of the internet.

So here are many things I think about Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese. These aren’t facts necessarily, and I could be convinced otherwise with better information, but based on the information I have, these are my thoughts:

• Caitlin doesn’t like Angel.
• Angel doesn’t like Caitlin.
• They do not have to like each other, and their not liking each other should be a great thing for the sport.
• Some unknowable amount of Caitlin’s success is due to her being white.
• A FAR, FAR larger portion of her success is due to her being a one-of-one player in terms of style and talent.
• It is not Caitlin’s fault she is white or popular, and hating her due to her success is strange behavior.
• She is a far better player than Angel Reese.
• Angel is a unique talent, but probably not good enough to build a team around—and probably wouldn’t be being built around if she weren’t Angel Reese.
• Angel has done mostly nothing wrong. She has had some hard fouls on Caitlin and maybe retweeted some things she shouldn’t have, but she is not the one stoking the flames of the race debate between them. She is allowed to not like Caitlin, and again, that is a good thing! To hate Angel because of this situation is, again, very odd behavior.
• Caitlin’s foul was a flagrant, but she has also done mostly nothing wrong. Again, she is not the reason this discourse has gone down this rabbit hole, and hard fouls are part of basketball.
• Based on the evidence we currently have; it seems unlikely that any racial slur or monkey noises were directed at Angel or any Sky player during the Fever-Sky game from Saturday.
• The WNBA did a massive disservice to both Angel and Caitlin by launching an investigation before seeing if it was probable that the allegation held any truth.
• The vitriol toward Angel can sometimes feel racially motivated (multiple people calling her a “thug” in the Barstool video prior to the game comes to mind).
• What Ryan Clark said about RG3 and his wife is way out of line.
• I like Angel and I like Caitlin, but the general conversation around both of them is unbearable and bad for the sport in the long term if not shifted soon.

If you’re a huge Caitlin fan, it’s OK to admit that what makes you hate Angel is mostly just the conversation surrounding her. She’s never done anything to show she’s a “terrible person,” as @shadybiev on Twitter would say. That doesn’t mean you have to like her, but she’s done very little of anything that would point to her being anything other than a fine person who is a competitive basketball player.

And if you’re a huge Angel fan, it’s OK to admit that Caitlin is currently a better player. It’s also OK to admit that it’s not Caitlin’s fault she’s both white and wildly popular. And even if that’s something that REALLY frustrates you, she isn’t the root of that problem, and hating her for it doesn’t make any sense.

Holding multiple truths that might not feel great together is a good thing—and we should practice it more often.

The Double-Edged Sword of Confidence and Betting:

It’s not a coincidence that most originators on Twitter—including yours truly—are also considered know-it-all, pompous douchers. It takes a certain kind of know-it-all confidence to risk your own money because you think you have an edge on an entire market. That confidence doesn’t shrink as you start to win—it grows. The more winning you do, the more confident you get.

In some ways, this can be good. I’ve seen many bettors who just aren’t willing to put their cards on the table and really risk it. And that lack of confidence is the reason they never grew or won significant money betting on sports, despite being quite good at it. The more that confidence grows, the more willing you are to take risks and take on the challenge of bigger markets.

Which is a good thing—unless you lose.

I had a very experienced bettor tell me something along the lines of:
“You don’t stop having an edge. You bet for a year, get your ass kicked, and then eventually—when you’ve lost nearly all your money—maybe you realize your edge is gone.”

And look, I don’t think that’s true of everyone. Or at least I hope it’s not. But betting isn’t like most games you play in life. In a regular job, getting too confident might get you fired. Not ideal—but you’ll probably be fine. In betting, that same misplaced confidence doesn’t cost you a position on the org chart—it costs you your bankroll. In most other arenas, delusional self-belief gets mistaken for vision. You get promoted, applauded, maybe even funded. In this one, you just get humbled—fast.

That’s really where the double-edged sword of confidence kills you. You win betting $500 props. Then maybe $1,000. You move to sides and totals. Then for years you’ve grinded it out—and wow, you’re now betting $100K a side and you think you’re the best in the world. You’re both the most confident you’ve ever been and betting the most you’ve ever bet—and then, all of a sudden, you don’t have the cards.

That’s an easy way to go bust.

So how do you get the benefits of that confidence growing without it being the thing that ends up killing you? That I’m not sure. I hope being aware of it helps. I know I’ve become less worried about how the market reacts to some stuff I play—maybe that’s a bad sign for things to come for me. Maybe the answer isn’t to kill the confidence, but to keep it on a leash—and remember that the edge you’re betting on isn’t just in your model, it’s in knowing when to pump the brakes.

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